Evaluating geostatistical modeling of exceedance probability as the first step in disease cluster investigations: very low birth weights near toxic Texas sites

Environmental Health

Methodology

Anne M Sweeney¹  James A Thompson²  Wesley T Bissett² 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Rural Public Health, Texas A&M Health Science CenterCollege Station, 77843-1266, College Station, TX, USA;Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, 77843-4475, College Station, TX, USA;

关键词: Exceedance Probability;    Geostatistical Modeling;    Superfund Site;    Disease Cluster;    Standard Deviation Estimate;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1476-069X-13-47

 received in 2014-02-06, accepted in 2014-06-04,  发布年份 2014

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe first step in evaluating potential geographic clusters of disease calls for an evaluation of the disease risk comparing the risk in a defined location to the risk in neighboring locations. Environmental exposures, however, represent continuous exposure levels across space not an exposure with a distinct boundary. The objectives of the current study were to adapt, apply and evaluate a geostatistical approach for identifying disease clusters.MethodsThe exceedance probability for very low birth weight (VLBW; < 1.5 kg) infants was mapped using an Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive model. The data were applied to a 20 by 20 grid of 1 km2 pixels centered on each of the 13 National Priority List Superfund Sites in Harris County, Texas.ResultsLarge clusters of VLBW were identified in close proximity to four of the 13 Superfund Sites. Three of the Superfund Sites, associated with disease clusters, were located close together in central Houston and these sites may have been surrounded by a single, confluent disease cluster.ConclusionsGeostatistical modeling of the exceedance probability for very low birth weights identified disease clusters of varying size, shape and statistical certainty near Superfund Sites in Harris County, Texas. The approach offers considerable potential as the first step for investigating potential disease clusters.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Thompson et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014