Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Roni Rosenfeld¹  Jeffrey Shaman²  Lyn Finelli³  Matthew Biggerstaff³  David Alper⁴  Isaac Chun-Hai Fung⁵  Mark Dredze⁶  Kyle S. Hickmann⁷  Alessandro Vespignani⁸  Ming-Hsiang Tsou⁹  Paola Velardi^1,10  Spencer Fox^1,11  Bryan Lewis^1,12 

[1] Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;Columbia University, New York, New York, USA;Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA;Everyday Health, New York, New York, USA;Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA;Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA;Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA;Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA;Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA;San Diego State University, San Diego, California, USA;Sapienza University of Roma, Rome, Italy;University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA;Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA;

关键词: Influenza;    Forecasting;    Prediction;    Modeling;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-016-1669-x

 received in 2015-12-01, accepted in 2016-06-28,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundEarly insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013–14 Unites States influenza season.MethodsChallenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013–2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013–March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet).ResultsNine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones.ConclusionForecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2016