Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Lifeng Lin¹  Liping Liu¹  Yonghui Zhang¹  Tie Song¹  Jianfeng He¹  Lingchuan Guo²  Hualiang Lin²  Xiaolong Du²  Weilin Zeng²  Xing Li²  Guanghu Zhu²  Tao Liu²  Jianpeng Xiao²  Zheng Cao³  Wenjun Ma³ 

[1] Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, 511430, Guangzhou, China;Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, 511430, Guangzhou, China;Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 511 Kehua Street, Tianhe District, 510640, Guangzhou, China;

关键词: Zika virus;    Risk assessment;    Transmission;    China;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-016-2170-2

 received in 2016-08-24, accepted in 2016-12-24,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAn international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention in 2015. The infection also affected Guangdong province, which is located in southern China. Multiple factors, including frequent communication with South America and Southeast Asia, suitable climate (sub-tropical) for the habitat of Aedes species, may increase the risk of ZIKV disease transmission in this region.MethodsAn analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to develop a semi-quantitative ZIKV risk assessment model. After selecting indicators, we invited experts in related professions to identify the index weight and based on that a hierarchical structure was generated. Then a series of pairwise comparisons were used to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Finally, the optimal model was established to estimate the spatial and seasonal transmission risk of ZIKV.ResultsA total of 15 factors that potentially influenced the risk of ZIKV transmission were identified. The factor that received the largest weight was epidemic of ZIKV in Guangdong province (combined weight [CW] =0.37), followed by the mosquito density (CW = 0.18) and the epidemic of DENV in Guangdong province (CW = 0.14). The distribution of 123 districts/counties’ RIs of ZIKV in Guangdong through different seasons were presented, respectively.ConclusionsHigher risk was observed within Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Jiangmen, and the risk is greater in summer and autumn compared to spring and winter.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2017