Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change

Malaria Journal

Research

Jürg Utzinger¹  Marcel Tanner¹  Robert Bergquist²  Qi Gao³  Guo-Jing Yang⁴  Xiao-Nong Zhou⁵  John B Malone⁶  Emily YY Chan⁷ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002, Basel, Switzerland;University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003, Basel, Switzerland;Ingerod, Brastad, Sweden;Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, 214064, Wuxi, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China;Key Laboratory on Control Technology for Parasitic Diseases, Ministry of Health, 214064, Wuxi, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China;Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, 214064, Wuxi, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China;Key Laboratory on Control Technology for Parasitic Diseases, Ministry of Health, 214064, Wuxi, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China;School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Jockey Club Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong;National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 200025, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China;Key Laboratory on Biology of Parasite and Vector, Ministry of Health, People’s Republic of China, WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Filariasis, 200025, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China;Pathobiological Sciences, Skip Bertman Drive, Louisiana State University, 70803, Baton Rouge, LA, USA;School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Jockey Club Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong;

关键词: Malaria;    Climate change;    Surveillance-response;    Elimination;    People’s Republic of China;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1475-2875-11-426

 received in 2012-06-08, accepted in 2012-12-11,  发布年份 2012

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundA sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010–2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020–2050).MethodsEnvironmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961–2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%.ResultsConsidering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country.ConclusionAdequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© Yang et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2012. This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.