Do health care workforce, population, and service provision significantly contribute to the total health expenditure? An econometric analysis of Serbia

Human Resources for Health

Research

V. Vasic¹  M. Santric-Milicevic²  Z. Terzic-Supic² 

[1] Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Kamenicka 6, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia;Institute of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Dr Subotica 15, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia;Center School of Public Health and Health Management, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Pasterova 2, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia;

关键词: Health care workforce;    Population growth;    Service provision;    Total health expenditure;    Econometric analysis;    Serbia;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12960-016-0146-3

 received in 2015-02-28, accepted in 2016-07-28,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIn times of austerity, the availability of econometric health knowledge assists policy-makers in understanding and balancing health expenditure with health care plans within fiscal constraints. The objective of this study is to explore whether the health workforce supply of the public health care sector, population number, and utilization of inpatient care significantly contribute to total health expenditure.MethodsThe dependent variable is the total health expenditure (THE) in Serbia from the years 2003 to 2011. The independent variables are the number of health workers employed in the public health care sector, population number, and inpatient care discharges per 100 population. The statistical analyses include the quadratic interpolation method, natural logarithm and differentiation, and multiple linear regression analyses. The level of significance is set at P < 0.05.ResultsThe regression model captures 90 % of all variations of observed dependent variables (adjusted R square), and the model is significant (P < 0.001). Total health expenditure increased by 1.21 standard deviations, with an increase in health workforce growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Furthermore, this rate decreased by 1.12 standard deviations, with an increase in (negative) population growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Finally, the growth rate increased by 0.38 standard deviation, with an increase of the growth rate of inpatient care discharges per 100 population by 1 standard deviation (P < 0.001).ConclusionsStudy results demonstrate that the government has been making an effort to control strongly health budget growth. Exploring causality relationships between health expenditure and health workforce is important for countries that are trying to consolidate their public health finances and achieve universal health coverage at the same time.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2016