Urbanization and the global malaria recession

Malaria Journal

Research

Andrew J Tatem¹  David L Smith²  Simon I Hay³  Peter W Gething⁴ 

[1] Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UK;Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 20892, Bethesda, MD, USA;Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 20892, Bethesda, MD, USA;Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA;Malaria Research Institute, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA;Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 20892, Bethesda, MD, USA;Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, OX1 3PS, Oxford, UK;Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, OX1 3PS, Oxford, UK;

关键词: Urbanization;    Global malaria endemicity;    Plasmodium falciparum;    Plasmodium vivax;    Malaria elimination;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1475-2875-12-133

 received in 2013-01-09, accepted in 2013-03-24,  发布年份 2013

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe past century has seen a significant contraction in the global extent of malaria transmission, resulting in over 50 countries being declared malaria free, and many regions of currently endemic countries eliminating the disease. Moreover, substantial reductions in transmission have been seen since 1900 in those areas that remain endemic today. Recent work showed that this malaria recession was unlikely to have been driven by climatic factors, and that control measures likely played a significant role. It has long been considered, however, that economic development, and particularly urbanization, has also been a causal factor. The urbanization process results in profound socio-economic and landscape changes that reduce malaria transmission, but the magnitude and extent of these effects on global endemicity reductions are poorly understood.MethodsGlobal data at subnational spatial resolution on changes in malaria transmission intensity and urbanization trends over the past century were combined to examine the relationships seen over a range of spatial and temporal scales.Results/ConclusionsA consistent pattern of increased urbanization coincident with decreasing malaria transmission and elimination over the past century was found. Whilst it remains challenging to untangle whether this increased urbanization resulted in decreased transmission, or that malaria reductions promoted development, the results point to a close relationship between the two, irrespective of national wealth. The continuing rapid urbanization in malaria-endemic regions suggests that such malaria declines are likely to continue, particularly catalyzed by increasing levels of direct malaria control.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Tatem et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2013