Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities

Environmental Health

Research

Antonio Gasparrini¹  Ben Armstrong²  Aurelio Tobías³  Julio Diaz⁴ 

[1] Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Keppel Street, WC1E 7HT, London, UK;Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1H 9SH, London, UK;Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), C/Jordi Girona 18-26, 08031, Barcelona, Spain;National School of Public Health (ENS), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029, Madrid, Spain;

关键词: Temperature;    Heat;    Mortality;    Spain;    Time-series;    Heterogeneity;    Adaptation;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1476-069X-13-48

 received in 2013-12-02, accepted in 2014-05-02,  发布年份 2014

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundPeriods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990–2004.MethodsPoisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves.ResultsRisk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants.ConclusionsCities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Tobías et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014