Projecting productivity losses for cancer-related mortality 2011 – 2030

BMC Cancer

Research Article

Alison Pearce¹  Paul Hanly²  Michal Molcho³  Ciaran O’Neill³  Audrey Alforque Thomas³  Linda Sharp⁴  Cathy Bradley⁵ 

[1] National Cancer Registry Ireland, Building 6800 Cork Airport Business Park, Kinsale Rd, Cork, Ireland;Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia;National College of Ireland, Mayor Street, IFSC, Dublin 1, Ireland;National University of Ireland, University Road, Galway, Ireland;Newcastle University, Richardson Road, NE2 4AX, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK;Virginia Commonwealth University, 23284, Richmond, VA, USA;

关键词: Neoplasms;    Cost of illness;    Work;    Employment;    Labor force;    Premature Mortality;    Health care economics;    Productivity;    Household activities;    Human Capital Approach;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12885-016-2854-4

 received in 2015-09-21, accepted in 2016-10-11,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundWhen individuals stop working due to cancer this represents a loss to society – the loss of productivity. The aim of this analysis was to estimate productivity losses associated with premature mortality from all adult cancers and from the 20 highest mortality adult cancers in Ireland in 2011, and project these losses until 2030.MethodsAn incidence-based method was used to estimate the cost of cancer deaths between 2011 and 2030 using the Human Capital Approach. National data were used for cancer, population and economic inputs. Both paid work and unpaid household activities were included. Sensitivity analyses estimated the impact of assumptions around future cancer mortality rates, retirement ages, value of unpaid work, wage growth and discounting.ResultsThe 233,000 projected deaths from all invasive cancers in Ireland between 2011 and 2030 will result in lost productivity valued at €73 billion; €13 billion in paid work and €60 billion in household activities. These losses represent approximately 1.4 % of Ireland’s GDP annually. The most costly cancers are lung (€14.4 billion), colorectal and breast cancer (€8.3 billion each). However, when viewed as productivity losses per cancer death, testis (€364,000 per death), cervix (€155,000 per death) and brain cancer (€136,000 per death) are most costly because they affect working age individuals. An annual 1 % reduction in mortality reduces productivity losses due to all invasive cancers by €8.5 billion over 20 years.ConclusionsSociety incurs substantial losses in productivity as a result of cancer-related mortality, particularly when household production is included. These estimates provide valuable evidence to inform resource allocation decisions in cancer prevention and control.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2016