Evidence-Based interventions of Norovirus outbreaks in China

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Qiuping Chen¹  Tianmu Chen²  Ross Ka-Kit Leung³  Ying Wu⁴  Yaman Li⁵  Ruchun Liu⁵  Haogao Gu⁵ 

[1] Hospital, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China;Office for Disease Control and Emergency Response, Tianxin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan, People’s Republic of China;Office for Disease Control and Emergency Response, Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 149 Wei’er Road, Changsha, Hunan, People’s Republic of China;Office for Disease Control and Emergency Response, Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 149 Wei’er Road, Changsha, Hunan, People’s Republic of China;School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China;Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China;Office for Disease Control and Emergency Response, Tianxin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan, People’s Republic of China;School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China;

关键词: Mathematical model;    Norovirus;    Outbreak;    Water disinfection;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-016-3716-3

 received in 2016-04-12, accepted in 2016-09-23,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIn resource-limited settings where laboratory capacity is limited and response strategy is non-specific, delayed or inappropriate intervention against outbreaks of Norovirus (NoV) are common. Here we report interventions of two norovirus outbreaks, which highlight the importance of evidence-based modeling and assessment to identify infection sources and formulate effective response strategies.MethodsSpatiotemporal scanning, mathematical and random walk modeling predicted the modes of transmission in the two incidents, which were supported by laboratory results and intervention outcomes.ResultsSimulation results indicated that contaminated water was 14 to 500 fold more infectious than infected individuals. Asymptomatic individuals were not effective transmitters. School closure for up to a week still could not contain the outbreak unless the duration was extended to 10 or more days. The total attack rates (TARs) for waterborne NoV outbreaks reported in China (n = 3, median = 4.37) were significantly (p < 0.05) lower than worldwide (n = 14, median = 41.34). The low TARs are likely due to the high number of the affected population.ConclusionsWe found that school closure alone could not contain Norovirus outbreaks. Overlooked personal hygiene may serve as a hotbed for infectious disease transmission. Our results reveal that evidence-based investigations can facilitate timely interventions of Norovirus transmission.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2016