Factors affecting the survival probability of becoming a centenarian for those aged 70, based on the human mortality database: income, health expenditure, telephone, and sanitation

BMC Geriatrics

Research Article

Jong In Kim¹  Gukbin Kim² 

[1] Division of Health and Welfare, Wonkwang University, 570-749, Iksan, South Korea;Management with International Business, Royal Holloway, University of London, TW20 0EX, Egham, Surrey, UK;

关键词: Centenarians;    Survival probability;    Human mortality database;    Data quality;    Gross national income;    Sanitation facilities;    Health expenditure;    Longevity index;    Healthy aging;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2318-14-113

 received in 2014-01-05, accepted in 2014-10-02,  发布年份 2014

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundWhat are the factors that affect the survival probability of becoming a centenarian for those aged 70? Do the factors include income, health expenditure, the use of mobile telephones, or sanitation? The survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) is defined as an estimate of the production of centenarians by a population. The SPBC (70) is the survival probability of becoming a centenarian for those aged 70. This study estimates the associations between the SPBC (70), and the gross national income, health expenditure, telecommunications, and sanitation facilities in 32 countries.MethodsThe socioeconomic indicators for this study were obtained from the database of the United Nations Development Programme. In addition, the data for the analysis of centenarians in 32 countries were obtained from the Human Mortality Database, which is maintained by the Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, USA, and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. Associations between socioeconomic indicators and SPBC (70) were assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficients and multiple regression models.ResultsSignificant positive correlations were found between the SPBC (70), and the socioeconomic factors of gross national income (GNI), public expenditure on health as a percentage of gross domestic product (PEHGDP), fixed and mobile telephone subscribers (FMTS) as the standard of living, and improved sanitation facilities (ISF). Overall, the SPBC (70) of female and male predictors were used, in order to form a model production of centenarians, with higher GNI and PEHGDP, as well as higher FMTS and ISF as the socioeconomic factors (R2= 0.422, P< 0.001).ConclusionsThe socioeconomic level in all 32 countries appears to have an important latent effect on the production of centenarians in both females and males. This study has identified the following four important aspects of socioeconomic indicators in the survival probability of becoming a centenarian for those aged 70: higher overall economic development level, public expenditure on health, mobile telephone subscribers as the standard of living, and the use of improved sanitation facilities for healthy aging. Thus, the socioeconomic level seems to affect an important on the survival probability of becoming a centenarian.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Kim and Kim; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014