Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Michela Baccini¹  Hans Hooyberghs²  Koen De Ridder²  Wouter Lefebvre²  Margarita Spasenovska³  Kristen Scott⁴  Gerardo Sanchez Martinez⁴  Vladimir Kendrovski⁴ 

[1] Department of Statistics, Informatics and Applications (DiSIA), University of Florence, Viale Morgagni 59, 50134, Florence, Italy;Biostatistics Unit, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), Via Cosimo Il Vecchio 2, 50139, Florence, Italy;VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), Urban Climate Team, Boeretang 200, 2400, Mol, Belgium;WHO Country Office, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Drezdenska 22, 1000, Skopje, Macedonia;WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113, Bonn, Germany;

关键词: Heat waves;    Skopje;    Heat-related mortality;    Climate change;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-016-3077-y

 received in 2016-01-16, accepted in 2016-05-04,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundExcessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period.MethodsAfter ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, and in a past time period (1986–2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact.ResultsOur estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986–2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026–2045, and more than quadruple in 2081–2100. When considering the impact in 2081–2100, sampling variability around the heat–mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability.ConclusionThese results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Martinez et al. 2016