The utility of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 Scale as a predictor of outcomes in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security-A UK perspective

BMC Psychiatry

Research Article

Mairead Dolan¹ 

[1] Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Monash University and the Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, 505 Hoddle Street, 3068, Clifton Hill, Victoria, Australia;

关键词: Community Violence;    Post Discharge;    Violent Recidivism;    Medium Security;    Violence Risk Assessment;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-244X-10-76

 received in 2010-03-16, accepted in 2010-09-29,  发布年份 2010

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundStructured Professional Judgment (SPJ) approaches to violence risk assessment are increasingly being adopted into clinical practice in international forensic settings. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scale for outcome following transfers from high to medium security in a United Kingdom setting.MethodsThe sample was predominately male and mentally ill and the majority of cases were detained under the criminal section of the Mental Health Act (1986). The HCR-20 was rated based on detailed case file information on 72 cases transferred from high to medium security. Outcomes were examined, independent of risk score, and cases were classed as "success or failure" based on established criteria.ResultsThe mean length of follow up was 6 years. The total HCR-20 score was a robust predictor of failure at lower levels of security and return to high security. The Clinical and Risk management items contributed most to predictive accuracy.ConclusionsAlthough the HCR-20 was designed as a violence risk prediction tool our findings suggest it has potential utility in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Dolan and Blattner; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2010