Estimating the number of colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-tumour therapy in 2015: the analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry

BMC Public Health

Research Article

David Feltl¹  Jan Mužík²  Tomáš Pavlík²  Jana Koptíková²  Ladislav Dušek²  Ondřej Májek²  Rostislav Vyzula³  Lubomír Slavíček⁴  Jindřich Fínek⁵ 

[1] Clinic of Oncology, University Hospital in Ostrava, Ostrava, Czech Republic;Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic;Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic;Department of Complex Oncology Care, Masaryk Memorial Cancer Institute, Brno, Czech Republic;Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic;Department of Oncology, Hospital in Jihlava, Jihlava, Czech Republic;Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic;Oncology and Radio-therapeutic Department, University Hospital, Plzen, Czech Republic;

关键词: Czech Republic;    Cancer Recurrence;    Improve Survival Rate;    Colorectal Cancer Recurrence;    Cancer Recurrence Rate;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-12-117

 received in 2011-10-04, accepted in 2012-02-10,  发布年份 2012

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) represents a serious health care problem in the Czech Republic, introducing a need for a prospective modelling of the incidence and prevalence rates. The prevalence of patients requiring anti-tumour therapy is also of great importance, as it is directly associated with planning of health care resources.MethodsThis work proposes a population-based model for the estimation of stage-specific prevalence of CRC patients who will require active anti-tumour therapy in a given year. Its applicability is documented on records of the Czech National Cancer Registry (CNCR), which is used to estimate the number of patients potentially treated with anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015.ResultsSeveral scenarios are adopted to cover the plausible development of the incidence and survival rates, and the probability of an anti-tumour therapy initiation. Based on the scenarios, the model predicts an increase in CRC prevalence from 13% to 30% in comparison with the situation in 2008. Moreover, the model predicts that 10,074 to 11,440 CRC patients will be indicated for anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015. Considering all patients with terminal cancer recurrence and all patients primarily diagnosed in stage IV, it is predicted that 3,485 to 4,469 CRC patients will be treated for the metastatic disease in 2015, which accounts for more than one third (34-40%) of all CRC patients treated this year.ConclusionsA new model for the estimation of the number of CRC patients requiring active anti-tumour therapy is proposed in this paper. The model respects the clinical stage as the primary stratification factor and utilizes solely the population-based cancer registry data. Thus, no specific hospital data records are needed in the proposed approach. Regarding the short-term prediction of the CRC burden in the Czech Republic, the model confirms a continuous increase in the burden that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© Pavlik et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2012. This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.