The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Chi-Jung Hsieh¹  Christian Schafferer²  Chun-Yuan Yeh²  Li-Ming Ho³  Jie-Min Lee⁴ 

[1] Department of Finance, National Changhua University of Education, Changhua, Taiwan;Department of International Trade, Overseas Chinese University, Taichung, Taiwan;Department of Marine Leisure Management, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan;Department of Shipping and Transportation Management, National Kaohsiung Marine University, 142, Hai-Chuan Rd. Nan-Tzu, Kaohsiung, Taiwan;

关键词: Cigarette price;    Cigarette consumption;    Threshold regression model-Smoking-attributable mortality;    European Union;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-017-4685-x

 received in 2017-04-17, accepted in 2017-08-17,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundEuropean Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries.MethodsEmploying panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations.ResultsThe results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of −1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption.ConclusionsIt is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2017

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