Influenza epidemic surveillance and prediction based on electronic health record data from an out-of-hours general practitioner cooperative: model development and validation on 2003–2015 data

BMC Infectious Diseases

Research Article

Van Kinh Nguyen¹  Philippe Ryckebosch²  Barbara Michiels²  Samuel Coenen³  Niel Hens⁴  Nathalie Bossuyt⁵ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Ho Chi Minh University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam;Systems Medicine of Infectious Diseases (SMID), Department of Systems Immunology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany;Department of Primary and Interdisciplinary Care Antwerp (ELIZA) - Centre for General Practice, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;Department of Primary and Interdisciplinary Care Antwerp (ELIZA) - Centre for General Practice, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO) - Laboratory of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;Epidemiology and Social Medicine (ESOC), Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;Epidemiology and Social Medicine (ESOC), Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (iBIOSTAT), Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium;Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO) - Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;Unit Epidemiology of infectious diseases – Operational Directorate Public Health and Surveillance, Belgian Scientific Institute for Public Health, Brussels, Belgium;

关键词: Influenza-like illness;    Influenza;    Surveillance;    Epidemics;    Out-of-hours;    Prediction;    Epidemiology;    Secular;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-016-2175-x

 received in 2016-08-25, accepted in 2016-12-27,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAnnual influenza epidemics significantly burden health care. Anticipating them allows for timely preparation. The Scientific Institute of Public Health in Belgium (WIV-ISP) monitors the incidence of influenza and influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) and reports on a weekly basis. General practitioners working in out-of-hour cooperatives (OOH GPCs) register diagnoses of ILIs in an instantly accessible electronic health record (EHR) system.This article has two objectives: to explore the possibility of modelling seasonal influenza epidemics using EHR ILI data from the OOH GPC Deurne-Borgerhout, Belgium, and to attempt to develop a model accurately predicting new epidemics to complement the national influenza surveillance by WIV-ISP.MethodValidity of the OOH GPC data was assessed by comparing OOH GPC ILI data with WIV-ISP ILI data for the period 2003–2012 and using Pearson’s correlation. The best fitting prediction model based on OOH GPC data was developed on 2003–2012 data and validated on 2012–2015 data. A comparison of this model with other well-established surveillance methods was performed. A 1-week and one-season ahead prediction was formulated.ResultsIn the OOH GPC, 72,792 contacts were recorded from 2003 to 2012 and 31,844 from 2012 to 2015. The mean ILI diagnosis/week was 4.77 (IQR 3.00) and 3.44 (IQR 3.00) for the two periods respectively. Correlation between OOHs and WIV-ISP ILI incidence is high ranging from 0.83 up to 0.97. Adding a secular trend (5 year cycle) and using a first-order autoregressive modelling for the epidemic component together with the use of Poisson likelihood produced the best prediction results. The selected model had the best 1-week ahead prediction performance compared to existing surveillance methods. The prediction of the starting week was less accurate (±3 weeks) than the predicted duration of the next season.ConclusionOOH GPC data can be used to predict influenza epidemics both accurately and fast 1-week and one-season ahead. It can also be used to complement the national influenza surveillance to anticipate optimal preparation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2017