Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder among adults in flood district

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Mengshi Chen¹  Aizhong Liu¹  Hongzhuan Tan¹  Peng Huang²  Shuidong Feng³ 

[1] School of Public Health, Central South University, Xiangya Road 110, 410078, Changsha, Hunan, P.R. China;School of Public Health, Central South University, Xiangya Road 110, 410078, Changsha, Hunan, P.R. China;School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Bayi Road 603, 330006, Nanchang, Jiangxi, P.R. China;School of Public Health, University of South China, Changsheng Road 28, 421001, Hengyang, Hunan, P.R. China;

关键词: Positive Predictive Value;    Risk Score;    Negative Predictive Value;    Posttraumatic Stress Disorder;    Flash Flood;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-10-207

 received in 2009-05-11, accepted in 2010-04-26,  发布年份 2010

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundFlood is one of the most common and severe forms of natural disasters. Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a common disorder among victims of various disasters including flood. Early prediction for PTSD could benefit the prevention and treatment of PTSD. This study aimed to establish a prediction model for the occurrence of PTSD among adults in flood districts.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was carried out in 2000 among individuals who were affected by the 1998 floods in Hunan, China. Multi-stage sampling was used to select subjects from the flood-affected areas. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews using a questionnaire. PTSD was diagnosed according to DSM-IV criteria. Study subjects were randomly divided into two groups: group 1 was used to establish the prediction model and group 2 was used to validate the model. We first used the logistic regression analysis to select predictive variables and then established a risk score predictive model. The validity of model was evaluated by using the model in group 2 and in all subjects. The area under the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model.ResultsA total of 2336 (9.2%) subjects were diagnosed as probable PTSD-positive individuals among a total of 25,478 study subjects. Seven independent predictive factors (age, gender, education, type of flood, severity of flood, flood experience, and the mental status before flood) were identified as key variables in a risk score model. The area under the ROC curve for the model was 0.853 in the validation data. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of this risk score model were 84.0%, 72.2%, 23.4%, and 97.8%, respectively, at a cut-off value of 67.5 in the validation data.ConclusionsA simple risk score model can be used to predict PTSD among victims of flood.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© Huang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2010. This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.