Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Abdul Rahman Bizri¹  Randa Hamadeh¹  E. Farris Langley²  Ali Alawieh³  Zahraa Sabra⁴  Fadi A. Zaraket⁵ 

[1] Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon;Head, Primary Health Care Department, Director of Immunization Program, Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon;National Certification Committee, Polio Eradication Initiative - Lebanon, Beirut, Lebanon;Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA;Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA;Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon;Department of Neurosciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA;Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon;Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon;

关键词: Poliomyelitis;    Vaccine;    Vaccination campaign;    Syrian war;    Statistical model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-017-4909-0

 received in 2017-05-19, accepted in 2017-11-13,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAfter the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak.MethodsAcute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features.ResultsOur simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission.ConclusionsBoth surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of infectious diseases even in the context of population migration.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2017

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