Statistical explanation of the protective effect of four COVID-19 vaccine doses in the general population

Frontiers in Public Health

Public Health

Humberto Reyes¹  Constanza Méndez¹  Alexis M. Kalergis² 

[1] Millennium Institute on Immunology and Immunotherapy, Santiago, Chile;Departamento de Genética Molecular y Microbiología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;Millennium Institute on Immunology and Immunotherapy, Santiago, Chile;Departamento de Genética Molecular y Microbiología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;Departamento de Endocrinología, Facultad de Medicina, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;

关键词: COVID-19;    vaccination;    ICU hospitalizations;    explanatory model;    GAMLSS;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2023.1253762

 received in 2023-07-06, accepted in 2023-09-06,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

ObjectivesTo assess the effectiveness of four doses of the vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in the general population and the impact of this on the severity of the disease by age group.MethodsBy using data from the health authority public data base, we build statistical models using R and the GAMLSS library to explain the behavior of new SARS-CoV-2 infections, active COVID-19 cases, ICU bed requirement total and by age group, and deaths at the national level.ResultsThe four doses of vaccine and at least the interaction between the first and second doses were important explanatory factors for the protective effect against COVID-19. The R2 for new cases per day was 0.5644 and for occupied ICU beds the R2 is 0.9487. For occupied ICU beds for >70 years R2 is 0.9195 and with the interaction between 4 doses as the main factor.ConclusionsAlthough the increase in the number of vaccine doses did not adequately explain the decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases, it explained the decrease in ICU admissions and deaths nationwide and by age group.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Reyes, Méndez and Kalergis.