Establishment of hypertension risk nomograms based on physical fitness parameters for men and women: a cross-sectional study

Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine

Cardiovascular Medicine

Julien S. Baker¹  Bíró István²  Goran Munivrana³  Zhiyong Shi⁴  Yining Xu⁴  Minjun Liang⁴  Yaodong Gu⁴  Dong Sun⁴  Zsolt Radak⁵ 

[1] Department of Sport and Physical Education, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China;Faculty of Engineering, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary;Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Split, Split, Croatia;Faculty of Sports Science, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China;Research Institute of Sport Science, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Hungary;

关键词: hypertension;    nomogram;    risk factor;    predictive model;    LASSO;    physical fitness;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fcvm.2023.1152240

 received in 2023-02-02, accepted in 2023-08-28,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

ObjectiveThis study aims to establish hypertension risk nomograms for Chinese male and female adults, respectively.MethodA series of questionnaire surveys, physical assessments, and biochemical indicator tests were performed on 18,367 adult participants in China. The optimization of variable selection was conducted by running cyclic coordinate descent with 10-fold cross-validation through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The nomograms were built by including the predictors selected through multivariable logistic regression. Calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA), clinical impact curves (CIC), and net reduction curve plots (NRC) were used to validate the models.ResultsOut of a total of 18 variables, 5 predictors—namely age, body mass index, waistline, hipline, and resting heart rate—were identified for the hypertension risk predictive model for men with an area under the ROC of 0.693 in the training set and 0.707 in the validation set. Seven predictors—namely age, body mass index, body weight, cardiovascular disease history, waistline, resting heart rate, and daily activity level—were identified for the hypertension risk predictive model for women with an area under the ROC of 0.720 in the training set and 0.748 in the validation set. The nomograms for both men and women were externally well-validated.ConclusionGender differences may induce heterogeneity in hypertension risk prediction between men and women. Besides basic demographic and anthropometric parameters, information related to the functional status of the cardiovascular system and physical activity appears to be necessary.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© 2023 Xu, Shi, Sun, Munivrana, Liang, István, Radak, Baker and Gu.