An automated ash dispersion forecast system: case study Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Research

D. Herrera-Moro¹  J. Garcia-Escalante¹  Agustin R. García¹  J. Zavala-Hidalgo¹  H. Delgado-Granados²  O. Gómez-Ramos² 

[1] Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Coyoacán, México;Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Coyoacán, México;

关键词: Volcanic hazard;    Volcanic risk;    Fall3D;    Ash cloud modelling;    Ash dispersion forecasting;    High performance computer;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13617-023-00135-4

 received in 2022-08-26, accepted in 2023-09-04,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

An operational volcanic ash dispersion forecast system was developed for Popocatépetl. It runs automatically every day developing 108 possible scenarios of ash dispersion for the following 36 h. Scenarios are simulated for three eruption column heights: 3 km, 5 km, and 10 km above the volcano’s crater level, every hour for eruptions lasting 1 h. For each hypothetical eruption that starts every hour, the dispersion during the following 8 h is modelled. The system uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for weather data and the Fall3D model. It includes a visualization website that displays, among other products: ground accumulation, deposit load, and concentration at relevant flight levels. Popocatépetl volcano, located ~ 60 km from Mexico Megacity was selected as a case study. A comparison from ash forecast system results and satellite observations is presented. The system developed and tested here can be adapted to be operative at any volcano.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023

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