Managing uncertainty in forecasting health workforce demand using the Robust Workforce Planning Framework: the example of midwives in Belgium

Human Resources for Health

Research

Mélanie Lefèvre¹  Nadia Benahmed¹  Sabine Stordeur¹ 

[1] Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre, 55, Boulevard du Jardin Botanique, 1000, Brussels, Belgium;

关键词: Midwifery;    Human resources for health;    Midwifery services;    Scenario planning;    Belgium;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12960-023-00861-1

 received in 2023-02-22, accepted in 2023-09-05,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIn Belgium, the Planning Commission for Medical Supply is responsible for monitoring human resources for health (HRH) and ultimately proposing workforce quotas. It is supported by the Planning Unit for the Supply of the Health Professions. This Unit quantifies and forecasts the workforce in the healthcare professions on the basis of a stock and flow model, based on trends observed in the past. In 2019, the Planning Unit asked the KCE (Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre) to develop additional forecasting scenarios for the midwifery workforce, to complement the standard historical trend approach. The aim of this paper is to present the development of such forecasting scenarios.MethodsThe Robust Workforce Planning Framework, developed by the Centre for Workforce Intelligence in the UK was used to develop alternative midwifery workforce scenarios. The framework consists of four steps (Horizon scanning, Scenario generation, Workforce modelling, and Policy analysis), the first two of which were undertaken by KCE, using two online surveys and five workshops with stakeholders.ResultsThree alternative scenarios are proposed. The first scenario (close to the current situation) envisages pregnancy and maternity care centred on gynaecologists working either in a hospital or in private practice. The second scenario describes an organisation of midwife-led care in hospitals. In the third scenario, care is primarily organised by primary care practitioners (midwives and general practitioners) in outpatient settings.ConclusionsThe Robust Workforce Planning Framework provides an opportunity to adjust the modelling of the health workforce and inform decision-makers about the impact of their future decisions on the health workforce.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

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