The changing relationship between Cholera and interannual climate variables in Kolkata over the past century

Gut Pathogens

Research

Albert Chen¹  Debbie Shackleton¹  Fayyaz Ali Memon¹  Shanta Dutta²  Alok Deb²  Suman Kanungo² 

[1]Centre for Water Systems, Department of Engineering, University of Exeter, EX4 4QF, Exeter, UK

[2]National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India

关键词: Wavelet Analysis;    Cholera;    ENSO;    IOD;    Climate;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13099-023-00565-w

 received in 2023-04-13, accepted in 2023-08-01,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIn the Bengal Delta, research has shown that climate and cholera are linked. One demonstration of this is the relationship between interannual ocean-atmospheric oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). What remains unclear in the present literature is the nature of this relationship in the specific context of Kolkata, and how this relationship may have changed over time.ResultsIn this study, we analyse the changing relationship between ENSO and IOD with cholera in Kolkata over recent (1999–2019) and historical (1897–1941) time intervals. Wavelet coherence analysis revealed significant non-stationary association at 2–4 year and 4–8 year periods between cholera and both interannual timeseries during both time intervals. However, coherence was notably weakened in the recent interval, particularly with regards to ENSO, a result supported by a complementary SARIMA analysis. Similar coherence patterns with temperature indicate it could be an important mediating factor in the relationship between cholera and oscillating climate phenomena in Kolkata.ConclusionsThis study reveals a shifting relationship between cholera and climate variables (ENSO and IOD) in Kolkata, suggesting a decoupling between environmental influences and cholera transmission in recent years. Our results therefore do not suggest that an intensification of ENSO is likely to significantly influence cholera in the region. We also find that the relationship between cholera and interannual climate variables is distinct to Kolkata, highlighting the spatial heterogeneity of the climate-cholera relationship even within the Bengal Delta.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

【 图 表 】

Fig. 4

13690_2023_1170_Article_IEq166.gif

13690_2023_1170_Article_IEq57.gif

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 2

13690_2023_1170_Article_IEq152.gif

13690_2023_1170_Article_IEq27.gif

Fig. 4

Fig. 2

41408_2023_919_Article_IEq11.gif

Fig. 1