Development and validation of a live birth prediction model for expected poor ovarian response patients during IVF/ICSI

Frontiers in Endocrinology

Endocrinology

Chen Liu¹  Manli Zhang¹  Yuejie Zhu¹  Peng Wang¹  Zhihui Wang¹  Yunian Zhang²  Xiaolin La³  Xiaoyun Gong³ 

[1] Center for Reproductive Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China;Center for Reproductive Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China;Basic Medical College of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China;Center for Reproductive Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China;State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China;

关键词: poor ovarian response;    POSEIDON criteria;    IVF/ICSI transfer;    nomogram model;    live birth;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fendo.2023.1027805

 received in 2022-08-25, accepted in 2023-01-09,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundA number of live birth predictive model during assisted reproductive technology treatment have been available in recent years, but few targeted evaluating the chances of live birth in poor ovarian response(POR) patients. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on POSEIDON criteria to predict live birth in patients with expected POR.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study using clinical data from 657 patients in POSEIDON Groups 3 and 4 (antral follicle count [AFC] ≤5 and AMH <1.2 ng/ml) in the Center for Reproductive Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, and Construction a nomogram model tResultsAmong 657 expected POR patients, 111 (16.89%) had live births, and 546 (83.11%) did not have live births. These were divided into a training set(n=438) and a validation set (n=219). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the age (OR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97), BMI (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.09–3.67), AMH (OR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.45–8.51), normal fertilized oocytes (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.21–1.63), and the basal FSH (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80–0.98) of the female were independent factors predicting live birth in patients with expected POR. Then, an individualized nomogram prediction model was built from these five factors. The area under the ROC curve of the live birth prediction model was 0.820 in the training set and 0.879 in the validation set.ConclusionWe have developed a nomogram combining clinical and laboratory factors to predict the probability of live birth in patients with an expected POR during IVF/ICSI, which can helpful for clinician in decision-making. However, the data comes from the same center, needs a prospective multicenter study for further in-depth evaluation and validation of this prediction model.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
Copyright © 2023 Gong, Zhang, Zhu, Wang, Wang, Liu, Zhang and La