Crafting a prognostic nomogram for the overall survival rate of cutaneous verrucous carcinoma using the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

Frontiers in Endocrinology

Endocrinology

Liying Huang¹  Jun Lyu²  Kexin Li³  Siomui Chong⁴  Hai Yu⁴  Xiaoxi Zhang⁴  Hui Huang⁴  Liehua Deng⁵  Cheong Cheong Ip⁶  Wai-kit Ming⁷  Hsin-Hua Mu⁸ 

[1] Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China;Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Informatization (2021B1212040007), Guangzhou, China;Department of Dermatology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, He Yuan, China;Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University and Jinan University Institute of Dermatology, Guangzhou, China;Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University and Jinan University Institute of Dermatology, Guangzhou, China;Department of Dermatology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, He Yuan, China;Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University and Jinan University Institute of Dermatology, Guangzhou, China;Department of Dermatology, University Hospital Macau, Macau, Macao SAR, China;Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China;General Surgery Breast Medical Center, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, China;

关键词: cutaneous verrucous carcinoma;    nomograms;    SEER;    prognosis;    overall survival (OS);   

DOI  :  10.3389/fendo.2023.1142014

 received in 2023-01-11, accepted in 2023-03-02,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to establish and verify a predictive nomogram for patients with cutaneous verrucous carcinoma (CVC) who will eventually survive and to determine the accuracy of the nomogram relative to the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system.MethodsAssessments were performed on 1125 patients with CVC between 2004 and 2015, and the results of those examinations were recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided at a ratio of 7:3 into the training (n = 787) and validation (n = 338) cohorts. Predictors were identified using stepwise regression analysis in the COX regression model for create a nomogram to predict overall survival of CVC patients at 3-, 5-, and 8-years post-diagnosis. We compared the performance of our model with that of the AJCC prognosis model using several evaluation metrics, including C-index, NRI, IDI, AUC, calibration plots, and DCAs.ResultsMultivariate risk factors including sex, age at diagnosis, marital status, AJCC stage, radiation status, and surgery status were employed to determine the overall survival (OS) rate (P<0.05). The C-index nomogram performed better than the AJCC staging system variable for both the training (0.737 versus 0.582) and validation cohorts (0.735 versus 0.573), which AUC (> 0.7) revealed that the nomogram exhibited significant discriminative ability. The statistically significant NRI and IDI values at 3-, 5-, and 8-year predictions for overall survival (OS) in the validation cohort (55.72%, 63.71%, and 78.23%, respectively and 13.65%, 20.52%, and 23.73%, respectively) demonstrate that the established nomogram outperforms the AJCC staging system (P < 0.01) in predicting OS for patients with cutaneous verrucous carcinoma (CVC). The calibration plots indicate good performance of the nomogram, while decision curve analyses (DCAs) show that the predictive model could have a favorable clinical impact.ConclusionThis study constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with CVC in the SEER database and assessed it using several variables. This nomogram model can assist clinical staff in making more-accurate predictions than the AJCC staging method about the 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS probabilities of patients with CVC.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Chong, Huang, Yu, Huang, Ming, Ip, Mu, Li, Zhang, Lyu and Deng