Development and validation of a scoring system for the prediction of HIV drug resistance in Hubei province, China

Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology

Cellular and Infection Microbiology

Wenyuan Zhang¹  Lianguo Ruan¹  Xianguang Wang²  Jisong Yan²  Hong Luo² 

[1]Department of Infectious Diseases, Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Wuhan Research Center for Communicable Disease Diagnosis and Treatment, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Joint Laboratory of Infectious Diseases and Health, Wuhan Institute of Virology and Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei, China

[2]Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Wuhan Research Center for Communicable Disease Diagnosis and Treatment, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Joint Laboratory of Infectious Diseases and Health, Wuhan Institute of Virology and Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei, China

关键词: HIV/AIDS;    antiretroviral therapy;    drug resistance;    scoring system;    predicting model;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fcimb.2023.1147477

 received in 2023-01-18, accepted in 2023-04-28,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

ObjectiveThe present study aimed to build and validate a new nomogram-based scoring system for the prediction of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR).Design and methodsTotally 618 patients with HIV/AIDS were included. The predictive model was created using a retrospective set (N = 427) and internally validated with the remaining cases (N = 191). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out to fit a model using candidate variables selected by Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The predictive model was first presented as a nomogram, then transformed into a simple and convenient scoring system and tested in the internal validation set.ResultsThe developed scoring system consisted of age (2 points), duration of ART (5 points), treatment adherence (4 points), CD4 T cells (1 point) and HIV viral load (1 point). With a cutoff value of 7.5 points, the AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PLR and NLR values were 0.812, 82.13%, 64.55%, 2.32 and 0.28, respectively, in the training set. The novel scoring system exhibited a favorable diagnostic performance in both the training and validation sets.ConclusionThe novel scoring system can be used for individualized prediction of HIVDR patients. It has satisfactory accuracy and good calibration, which is beneficial for clinical practice.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Yan, Zhang, Luo, Wang and Ruan