Epidemiological and demographic drivers of lung cancer mortality from 1990 to 2019: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

Frontiers in Public Health

Public Health

Lei Gong¹  Zhaowei Meng²  Ying Wang³  Zheng Su⁴  Yong Jiang⁵  Youlin Qiao⁶  Yaguang Fan⁷  Heng Wu⁷  Xuebing Li⁷  Jing Wang⁷  Hongli Pan⁷  Qinghua Zhou⁸ 

[1] Department of Esophageal Cancer, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy of Tianjin City, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin, China;Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China;Department of Radiology, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China;Department of Tobacco Control and Prevention of Respiratory Disease, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China;National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China;National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China;Center of Global Health, School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Lung Cancer Metastasis and Tumor Microenvironment, Tianjin Lung Cancer Institute, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Lung Cancer Metastasis and Tumor Microenvironment, Tianjin Lung Cancer Institute, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China;Sichuan Lung Cancer Institute, Sichuan Lung Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China;

关键词: lung cancer;    global disease burden;    death;    mortality;    population growth;    aging;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2023.1054200

 received in 2022-09-26, accepted in 2023-04-03,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundUnderstanding the effects of demographic drivers on lung cancer mortality trends is critical for lung cancer control. We have examined the drivers of lung cancer mortality at the global, regional, and national levels.MethodsData on lung cancer death and mortality were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for lung cancer and all-cause mortality were calculated to measure temporal trends in lung cancer from 1990 to 2019. Decomposition analysis was used to analyze the contributions of epidemiological and demographic drivers to lung cancer mortality.ResultsDespite a non-significant decrease in ASMR [EAPC = −0.31, 95% confidence interval (CI): −1.1 to 0.49], the number of deaths from lung cancer increased by 91.8% [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 74.5–109.0%] between 1990 and 2019. This increase was due to the changes in the number of deaths attributable to population aging (59.6%), population growth (56.7%), and non-GBD risks (3.49%) compared with 1990 data. Conversely, the number of lung cancer deaths due to GBD risks decreased by 19.8%, mainly due to tobacco (−12.66%), occupational risks (−3.52%), and air pollution (−3.47%). More lung cancer deaths (1.83%) were observed in most regions, which were due to high fasting plasma glucose levels. The temporal trend of lung cancer ASMR and the patterns of demographic drivers varied by region and gender. Significant associations were observed between the contributions of population growth, GBD risks and non-GBD risks (negative), population aging (positive), and ASMR in 1990, the sociodemographic index (SDI), and the human development index (HDI) in 2019.ConclusionPopulation aging and population growth increased global lung cancer deaths from 1990 to 2019, despite a decrease in age-specific lung cancer death rates due to GBD risks in most regions. A tailored strategy is needed to reduce the increasing burden of lung cancer due to outpacing demographic drivers of epidemiological change globally and in most regions, taking into account region- or gender-specific risk patterns.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Fan, Jiang, Gong, Wang, Su, Li, Wu, Pan, Wang, Meng, Zhou and Qiao.