Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses

Frontiers in Public Health

Public Health

Asalah Alareeki¹  Susanne F. Awad²  Laith J. Abu-Raddad³  Julia A. Critchley⁴  Salah A. Alyafei⁵  Mohammed H. J. Al-Thani⁵  Abdulla O. Al-Hamaq⁶  Katie G. El-Nahas⁶ 

[1] Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar;World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar;Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar;World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar;Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States;Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar;World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar;Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States;Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar;College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar;Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom;Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar;Qatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Qatar;

关键词: epidemiology;    non-communicable disease;    risk factors;    mathematical modeling;    lifestyle management;    consumption;    legislation;    interventions;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2023.1167807

 received in 2023-02-16, accepted in 2023-05-30,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

AimsTo predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.MethodsA deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20–79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.ResultsAll intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8–46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.ConclusionsImplementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Alareeki, Awad, Critchley, El-Nahas, Al-Hamaq, Alyafei, Al-Thani and Abu-Raddad.