Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Ecology and Evolution

Maria M. Romeiras¹  Danilson Varela²  Luís Silva³ 

[1] Linking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food (LEAF), Associated Laboratory TERRA, Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal;Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c) and CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal;Linking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food (LEAF), Associated Laboratory TERRA, Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal;Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources – Azores (CIBIO-Açores), InBIO Associate Laboratory, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade dos Açores, Vairão, Portugal;Nova School of Business and Economics, Carcavelos, Portugal;Centro de Estudos Africanos Para Desenvolvimento e Inovação (CEADI), Assomada, Cabo Verde;Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources – Azores (CIBIO-Açores), InBIO Associate Laboratory, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade dos Açores, Vairão, Portugal;BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Vairão, Portugal;UNESCO Chair – Land Within Sea: Biodiversity and Sustainability in Atlantic Islands, Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal;

关键词: tropical dry islands;    native tree species;    species distribution models;    climate change;    habitat suitability;    Cabo Verde;    West Africa;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852

 received in 2022-10-10, accepted in 2023-02-20,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia albida (Delile) A.Chev. (Fabaceae). Therefore, protective afforestation is extremely important in Cabo Verde, one of the most vulnerable West African countries to climate change. With this work, we aimed to estimate the current distribution and potential shifts in suitable areas for F. albida under climate change, using species distribution models (i.e., random forest, generalized linear and additive models), covering its distribution range in Cabo Verde and mainland Africa. The best model was then projected for the studied area, at two different slice times, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on current bioclimatic variables, we estimated that almost two thirds of Cabo Verde’s territory is highly suitable for F. albida, which contrasts with its current occurrence. By overlaying the present habitat suitability with land use and land cover data, we concluded that habitat availability and suitability could be constrained by that factor. On average, the predicted suitable habitat for future distributions gradually decreases by 2080 under both scenarios compared with the current, with a smaller effect of RCP4.5 than of RCP8.5. Local authorities can benefit from this research and develop actions to promote sustainable reforestation in Cabo Verde, which should include native tree species that are best adapted to the local climate and could thus contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Varela, Romeiras and Silva.