The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme temperatures over Europe

Frontiers in Earth Science

Earth Science

M. Levent Kurnaz¹  Başak Bilgin²  Emine Canbaz³  Tugba Ozturk⁴  Dominic Matte⁵  Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen⁶ 

[1] Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Department of Physics, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Department of Sustainable Tourism Management, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Department of Computational Science and Engineering, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Department of Physics, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Isik University, Istanbul, Türkiye;Ouranos, Montréal, QC, Canada;Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark;NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Norway;

关键词: pattern scaling;    extreme temperatures;    climate change;    EURO-CORDEX;    regional climate modeling;   

DOI  :  10.3389/feart.2023.1178461

 received in 2023-03-02, accepted in 2023-06-06,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

This work investigates the scalability of extreme temperatures over the European domain with global warming levels. We have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional model simulations at 0.11° resolution for daily minimum and maximum temperatures to analyze future changes in extreme weather daily events. Scaling with the annual mean global warming modeled by the driving GCM was applied to future extreme temperature indices changes. Regional changes in each index were scaled by corresponding global warming levels obtained from GCMs. This approach asserts that regional patterns of climate change and average global temperature change are linearly related. It can provide information regarding climate change for periods or emission scenarios when no simulations exist. According to the results, the annual minimum of the lowest temperature of the day (TNn) increases more than the annual maximum of the highest temperature of the day (TXx) for Europe. The multi-model mean of the changes in scaled patterns of extreme temperatures emerges early, around 2020, even before it becomes robust. Individual scaled patterns of TNn and TXx emerge from around 2040.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Ozturk, Canbaz, Bilgin, Matte, Kurnaz and Christensen.