Spatial spillover impact of determinants on child mortality in Pakistan: evidence from Spatial Durbin Model

BMC Public Health

Research

Asad Abbas¹  Sami Ullah Khan²  Munir Ahmed³  Irfan Ullah⁴  Rashid Ahmad⁵  Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh⁵ 

[1]Department of Economics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan

[2]Department of Economics, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, KP, Pakistan

[3]Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan

[4]Reading Academy, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

[5]School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan

关键词: Child mortality;    Univariate autocorrelation;    Spatial clustering;    Spatial durbin model;    Spatial spillover effect;    Pakistan;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-023-16526-6

 received in 2023-05-25, accepted in 2023-08-16,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundChild mortality is a major challenge to public health in Pakistan and other developing countries. Reduction of the child mortality rate would improve public health and enhance human well-being and prosperity. This study recognizes the spatial clusters of child mortality across districts of Pakistan and identifies the direct and spatial spillover effects of determinants on the Child Mortality Rate (CMR).MethodData of the multiple indicators cluster survey (MICS) conducted by the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) was used to study the CMR. We used spatial univariate autocorrelation to test the spatial dependence between contiguous districts concerning CMR. We also applied the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to measure the spatial spillover effects of factors on CMR.ResultsThe study results showed 31% significant spatial association across the districts and identified a cluster of hot spots characterized by the high-high CMR in the districts of Punjab province. The empirical analysis of the SDM confirmed that the direct and spatial spillover effect of the poorest wealth quintile and MPI vulnerability on CMR is positive whereas access to postnatal care to the newly born child and improved drinking water has negatively (directly and indirectly) determined the CMR in Pakistan.ConclusionThe instant results concluded that spatial dependence and significant spatial spillover effects concerning CMR exist across districts. Prioritization of the hot spot districts characterized by higher CMR can significantly reduce the CMR with improvement in financial statuses of households from the poorest quintile and MPI vulnerability as well as improvement in accessibility to postnatal care services and safe drinking water.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

【 图 表 】

Fig. 5

Fig. 3

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 1

Fig. 1

Fig. 1

Fig. 4

Fig. 1

Fig. 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 1

Fig. 1