Spatial–temporal trends in global childhood overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030: a weight mean center and projection analysis of 191 countries

Globalization and Health

Research

Haixia Zhou¹  Youfa Wang²  Hong Xue³  Yang Wu⁴  Wen Peng⁵  Liwang Gao⁶  Peng Jia⁷ 

[1] Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, China;Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, China;International Obesity and Metabolic Disease Research Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China;International Obesity and Metabolic Disease Research Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China;Department of Health Administration and Policy, College of Public Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA;International Obesity and Metabolic Disease Research Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China;Department of Sociology, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, China;Nutrition and Health Promotion Center, Department of Public Health, Medical College, Qinghai University, Xining, China;International Obesity and Metabolic Disease Research Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China;School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, China;School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China;International Institute of Spatial Lifecourse Health (ISLE), Wuhan University, Wuhan, China;

关键词: Overweight and obesity;    Trends;    Projection;    Children and adolescents;    Global;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12992-023-00954-5

 received in 2023-02-02, accepted in 2023-07-26,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe geographic information science-based interactive map provided good prospects for the public health to study disease prevalence. The purpose of this study is to understand global spatial–temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and underlying causes help formulating intervention strategies.MethodsThis multiple cross-sectional study included data on childhood overweight and obesity prevalence, gross national income per capita, and urbanization rate for 191 countries from 1975–2016. Autoregressive integrated moving average model, standard deviational ellipse model and mixed-effects models were used to explore spatial–temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and associations with gross national income per capita and urbanization rate.ResultsGlobally, childhood overweight and obesity rate would reach 30.0% in 2030 (boys: 34.2%, girls: 27.4%). By 2030, it would reach 58.3% in middle- and high-income countries and 68.1% in Western Pacific region. Spatial–temporal trendline for childhood overweight and obesity in 1975–2030 exhibited a “C” shape, migrating from 1975 (15.6。E, 24.6。N) to 2005 (10.6。E, 21.7。N), then to 2030 (14.8。E, 17.4。N). The trendline for urbanization rate was also an irregular "C", and the turning point appeared five years earlier than childhood overweight and obesity.ConclusionsGlobally, childhood overweight and obesity prevalence will continue to increase. Its weight mean center migrated from western countries to Asia and Africa following economic development.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

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