Stock volatility and hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease: results from the National Insurance Claims for Epidemiological Research (NICER) study

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Article

关键词: NEGATIVE WEALTH SHOCK;    MARKET CRASH;    EMOTIONAL UPSET;    MORTALITY;    STROKE;    EARTHQUAKE;    TRIGGERS;    STRESS;    CHINA;    ANGER;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100595

来源: SCIE

【 摘 要 】

Background The association between stock volatility and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) was described during the 2008 Global Stock Market Crash; however, whether the finding in an occasional stock market crash is spurious remains unclear.Methods A time-series design was used to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to daily returns of two major indices and daily hospital admissions for CVD and its subtypes based on claims data from the National Insurance Claims for Epidemiological Research (NICER) study covering 174 major cities in China. The average per-centage change in daily hospital admissions for cause-specific CVD per 1% change in daily index returns was calcu-lated because the Chinese stock market policy limits its change by 10% of the previous day's closing price. A Poisson regression in a generalised additive model was used to assess the city-specific association; then, overall national esti-mations were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis.Findings Totally 8,234,164 hospital admissions for CVD were recorded during 2014-2017. Points of the Shanghai closing indices ranged from 1991.3 to 5166.4. A U-shaped association was observed between daily index returns and CVD admissions. Changes of 1% in daily returns of the Shanghai index corresponded to 1.28%(95%CI: 1.04%-1.53%), 1.25%(0.99%-1.51%), 1.42%(1.13%-1.72%), and 1.14%(0.39%-1.89%) increases in hospital admis-sions for total CVD, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, or heart failure on the same day, respectively. Similar results were observed for the Shenzhen index. Interpretation Stock market volatility is associated with an increased CVD admission.Funding Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2020YFC2003503) and National Natural Science Founda-tion of China (81973132, 81961128006).Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)