Prognostic nomogram for overall survival in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients treated with chemotherapy: a SEER-based retrospective cohort study

BMC Urology

Research

Yang Hong¹  Cong Tian¹  Lizhe An¹  Jun Liu¹  Qingquan Xu¹ 

[1] Department of Urology, Peking University People’s Hospital, 100034, Beijing, China;Peking University Applied Lithotripsy Institute, Peking University, 133# Fuchengmen Neidajie Street, XiCheng District, 100034, Beijing, China;

关键词: SEER;    Nomogram;    Prognosis;    Upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma;    Chemotherapy;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12894-022-01172-8

 received in 2022-10-10, accepted in 2022-12-28,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

ObjectiveTo establish a prognostic nomogram among UTUC patients who received chemotherapy.Methods1195 UTUC patients who received chemotherapy were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period between 2004 and 2015. Patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation set. Nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) in those patients. Receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROCs), calibration plots, and Decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to assess and compare the discrimination, accuracy, and practicability of the nomogram with 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system.ResultsSix clinical parameters were identified as independent prognostic factors for UTUC patients’ OS, including age, marital status, TNM stage, and surgical methods of the primary site. The ROC curves showed a satisfactory discrimination capacity of the nomogram, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under curve (AUC) values of 0.789, 0.772, and 0.763 in the training set and 0.772, 0.822, and 0.814 in the validation set, respectively. Calibration curves indicated a good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction. ROC and DCA curves showed our nomograms exhibited larger benefits than the 8th AJCC-TNM staging system.ConclusionsA prognostic nomogram was established and validated to present individual predictions of OS among chemotherapeutic UTUC patients. This nomogram may assist clinicians in accurate survival prognostication, treatment decision-making, and design of future clinical trials.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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