Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions

Journal of Sports Analytics

article

Claus Thorn Ekstrøm¹  Hans Van Eetvelde¹  Christophe Ley¹  Ulf Brefeld¹ 

[1] Section of Biostatistics, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen

关键词: Tournament prediction;    rank probability score;    sport prediction;    ensemble predictions;   

DOI  :  10.3233/JSA-200454

来源: IOS Press

【 摘 要 】

We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS handles partial ranking of teams, gives credit to predictions that are only slightly wrong, and can be modified with weights to stress the importance of particular features of the tournament prediction. Thus, the Tournament Rank Prediction Score is more flexible than the commonly preferred log loss score for such tasks. In addition, we show how predictions from historic tournaments can be optimally combined into ensemble predictions in order to maximize the TRPS for a new tournament.

【 授权许可】

Unknown