Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

Wellcome Open Research

article

Thibaut Jombart¹  Kevin van Zandvoort¹  Timothy W. Russell¹  Christopher I. Jarvis¹  Amy Gimma¹  Sam Abbott¹  Sam Clifford¹  Sebastian Funk¹  Hamish Gibbs¹  Yang Liu¹  Carl A. B. Pearson¹  Nikos I. Bosse¹  Rosalind M. Eggo¹  Adam J. Kucharski¹  W. John Edmunds¹ 

[1] Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine;UK Public Health Rapid Support Team;MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London;South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University

关键词: epidemics;    outbreak;    modelling;    statistics;    estimation;    covid-19;    SARS-CoV-2;   

DOI  :  10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1

学科分类：内科医学

来源: Wellcome

【 摘 要 】

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

【 授权许可】

CC BY