Potential decline in the distribution and food provisioning services of the mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern Africa

Frontiers of Biogeography

article

David Y. Shen¹  Henry Ferguson-Gow¹  Vivienne Groner¹  Thinandavha C. Munyai²  Rob Slotow²  Richard Pearson¹ 

[1] Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London;School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01

关键词: biotic interactions;    ecosystem services;    entomophagy;    species distribution models;   

DOI  :  10.21425/F5FBG59408

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: International Biogeography Society

【 摘 要 】

The mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) is an edible insect distributed across southern Africa. As a culturally important source of food, the mopane worm provides nutrition, livelihoods and improves wellbeing for rural communities across its range. However, this is strong evidence that insect populations are declining worldwide, and climate change is likely to cause many insect species to shift in their distributions. For these reasons, we aimed to model how the ecosystem service benefits of the mopane worm are likely to change in the coming decades. We modelled the distribution of the mopane worm under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Moreover, given that the mopane worm shows strong interactions with other species, particularly trees, we incorporated biotic interactions in our models using a Bayesian network. Our models project significant contraction across the species’ range, with up to 70% decline in habitat by the 2080s. Botswana and Zimbabwe are predicted to be the most severely impacted countries, with almost all habitat in Botswana and Zimbabwe modelled to be lost by the 2080s. Decline of mopane worm habitat would likely have negative implications for the health of people in rural communities due to loss of an important source of protein as well as household income provided by their harvest. Biogeographic shifts therefore have potential to exacerbate food insecurity, socio-economic inequalities, and gender imbalance (women are the main harvesters), with cascading effects that most negatively impact poor rural communities dependent on natural resource.

【 授权许可】

CC BY