Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for Yaws

Gates Open Research

article

Louise Dyson¹  Eric Q. Mooring³  Alex Holmes¹  Michael J. Tildesley¹  Michael Marks⁴ 

[1] Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick;School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick;Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health;Clinical Research Department, Faculty of Infectious & Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

关键词: yaws;    modelling;    neglected tropical diseases;   

DOI  :  10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1

学科分类：电子与电气工程

来源: American Journal Of Pharmtech Research

【 摘 要 】

The World Health Organization is currently developing 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In these, yaws has been targeted for eradication by 2030, with 50% of member states certified free of yaws transmission by 2023. Here we summarise the yaws modelling literature and discuss the proposed goal and strategy. The current Morges strategy involves rounds of Total Community Treatment (TCT), in which all members of the community are treated, and Total Targeted Treatment (TTT), treating active cases and their contacts. However, modelling and empirical work suggest that latent infections are often not found in the same household as active cases, reducing the utility of household-based contact tracing for a TTT strategy. Economic modelling has also discovered uncertainty in the cost of eradication, requiring further data to give greater information. We also note the need for improved active surveillance in previously endemic countries, in order to plan future intervention efforts and ensure global eradication.

【 授权许可】

CC BY