COVID-19: Identifying countries with indicators of success in responding to the outbreak

Gates Open Research

article

David S. Kennedy¹  VK Vu³  Hannah Ritchie⁴  Rebecca Bartlein⁶  Oliver Rothschild⁶  Daniel G. Bausch¹  Max Roser⁴  Anna C. Seale¹ 

[1] UK-Public Health Rapid Support Team, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine/ Public Health England;Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine;The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation;Our World in Data;Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford;Gates Ventures;Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

关键词: COVID-19;    pandemic;    lessons;    exemplars;    outbreak;    response;    learning;   

DOI  :  10.12688/gatesopenres.13140.2

学科分类：电子与电气工程

来源: American Journal Of Pharmtech Research

【 摘 要 】

Background: In designing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is critical to understand what has already worked well. We aimed to identify countries with emerging success stories from whom policymakers might draw important lessons.  Methods: We developed a process to first include countries with large enough populations that results were unlikely to be due to chance, that had sufficient cases for response mechanisms to be tested, and that shared the necessary publicly available data. Within these countries, we looked at indicators suggesting success in terms of detecting disease, containing the outbreak, and treating those who were unwell. To support comparability, we measured indicators per capita (per million) and across time. We then used the indicators to identify three countries with emerging success stories to include some diversity in global region, population demographics and form of government.   Results: We identified 66 countries that met our inclusion criteria on 18th May 2020. Several of these countries had indicators of success against the set indicators at different times in the outbreak. Vietnam had high levels of testing and successful containment with no deaths reported. South Korea had high levels of testing early in the outbreak, supporting containment. Germany had high levels of sustained testing and slower increases in cases and deaths than seen in other comparable settings. Conclusions: At the time of our assessment, Vietnam and South Korea were able to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 and avoid the exponential growth in cases seen elsewhere. Germany had more cases and deaths, but was nevertheless able to contain and mitigate the outbreak. Despite the many limitations to the data currently available, looking at comparative data can help identify countries from whom we can draw lessons, so that countries can inform and adapt their strategies for success in response to COVID-19.

【 授权许可】

CC BY