A Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM) Approach to Predict Student Performance

Journal of Information Technology Education

article

Taha Mansouri¹  Ahad ZareRavasan²  Amir Ashrafi³ 

[1] University of Salford;Masaryk University;University of Manchester

关键词: e-learning;    Learning Analytics (LA);    Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM);    Learning Management System (LMS);    Student Engagement;    Student Performance;   

DOI  :  10.28945/4760

学科分类：计算机科学（综合）

来源: Informing Science Institute

【 摘 要 】

Aim/Purpose This research aims to present a brand-new approach for student performance prediction using the Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM) approach. BackgroundPredicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. Different mathematical models have been employed to predict student performance. Although the available sets of common prediction approaches, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and regression, work well with large datasets, they face challenges dealing with small sample sizes, limiting their practical applications in real practices. MethodologySix distinct categories of performance antecedents are adopted here as course characteristics, LMS characteristics, student characteristics, student engagement, student support, and institutional factors, along with measurement items within each category. Furthermore, we assessed the student’s overall performance using three items of student satisfaction score, knowledge construction level, and student GPA. We have collected longitudinal data from 30 postgraduates in four subsequent semesters and analyzed data using the Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM) technique. ContributionThis research proposes a brand new approach, Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM), to predict student performance. Using this approach, we identified the most influential determinants of student performance, such as student engagement. Besides, this research depicts a model of interrelations among the student performance determinants. FindingsThe results suggest that the model reasonably predicts the incoming sequence when there is a limited sample size. The results also reveal that students’ total online time and the regularity of learning interval in LMS have the largest effect on overall performance. The student engagement category also has the highest direct effect on student’s overall performance. Recommendations for PractitionersAcademic institutions can use the results and approach developed in this paper to identify students’ performance antecedents, predict the performance, and establish action plans to resolve the shortcomings in the long term. Instructors can adjust their learning methods based on the feedback from students in the short run on the operational level. Recommendation for ResearchersResearchers can use the proposed approach in this research to deal with the problems in other domains, such as using LMS for organizational/institutional education. Besides, they can focus on specific dimensions of the proposed model, such as exploring ways to boost student engagement in the learning process. Impact on SocietyOur results revealed that students are at the center of the learning process. The degree to which they are dedicated to learning is the most crucial determinant of the learning outcome. Therefore, learners should consider this finding in order the gain value from the learning process. Future ResearchAs a potential for future works, the proposed approach could be used in other contexts to test its applicability. Future studies could also improve the performance level of the proposed LFMC model by tuning the model’s elements.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC