A ‘post-honeymoon’ measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing

PeerJ

article

Katelyn C. Corey¹  Andrew Noymer² 

[1] Fielding School of Public Health, University of California;Department of Population Health and Disease Prevention, University of California

关键词: Measles;    Epidemiology;    Mathematical models;    Vaccination;    Demography;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.2476

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988–1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent, they must expand their target age range.

【 授权许可】

CC BY