Modelling the effective reproduction number of vector-borne diseases: the yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, Angola 2015–2016 as an example

PeerJ

article

Shi Zhao¹  Salihu S. Musa⁴  Jay T. Hebert⁴  Peihua Cao⁵  Jinjun Ran⁶  Jiayi Meng⁷  Daihai He⁴  Jing Qin¹ 

[1] School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University;Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong;Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Lab, Shenzhen Research Institute, Chinese University of Hong Kong;Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University;Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery II, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University;School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong;School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an International Studies University

关键词: Reproduction number;    Vector-borne disease;    Epidemic;    Mathematical modelling;    Yellow fever;    Angola;    Luanda;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.8601

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

The burden of vector-borne diseases (Dengue, Zika virus, yellow fever, etc.) gradually increased in the past decade across the globe. Mathematical modelling on infectious diseases helps to study the transmission dynamics of the pathogens. Theoretically, the diseases can be controlled and eventually eradicated by maintaining the effective reproduction number, (Reff), strictly less than 1. We established a vector-host compartmental model, and derived (Reff) for vector-borne diseases. The analytic form of the (Reff) was found to be the product of the basic reproduction number and the geometric average of the susceptibilities of the host and vector populations. The (Reff) formula was demonstrated to be consistent with the estimates of the 2015–2016 yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, and distinguished the second minor epidemic wave. For those using the compartmental model to study the vector-borne infectious disease epidemics, we further remark that it is important to be aware of whether one or two generations is considered for the transition “from host to vector to host” in reproduction number calculation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY