Assessment and simulation of land use and land cover change impacts on the land surface temperature of Chaoyang District in Beijing, China

PeerJ

article

Muhammad Amir Siddique¹  Liu Dongyun¹  Pengli Li¹  Umair Rasool²  Tauheed Ullah Khan³  Tanzeel Javaid Aini Farooqi⁴  Liwen Wang¹  Boqing Fan¹  Muhammad Awais Rasool³ 

[1] School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University;Department of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences;School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University;Institute of Climate Change and Forestry Research, Beijing Forestry University

关键词: Land use and land cover change;    Urban green vegetation;    Land surface temperature;    Urban dynamics;    Urban planning;    Markov model;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.9115

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Rapid urbanization is changing the existing patterns of land use land cover (LULC) globally, which is consequently increasing the land surface temperature (LST) in many regions. The present study is focused on estimating current and simulating future LULC and LST trends in the urban environment of Chaoyang District, Beijing. Past patterns of LULC and LST were identified through the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method and multispectral Landsat satellite images during the 1990–2018 data period. The cellular automata (CA) and stochastic transition matrix of the Markov model were applied to simulate future (2025) LULC and LST changes, respectively, using their past patterns. The CA model was validated for the simulated and estimated LULC for 1990–2018, with an overall Kappa (K) value of 0.83, using validation modules in IDRISI software. Our results indicated that the cumulative changes in built-up to vegetation area were 74.61 km2 (16.08%) and 113.13 km2 (24.38%) from 1990 to 2018. The correlation coefficient of land use and land cover change (LULCC), including vegetation, water bodies and built-up area, had values of r =  − 0.155 (p 0.005), −0.809 (p = 0.000), and 0.519 (p 0.005), respectively. The results of future analysis revealed that there will be an estimated 164.92 km2 (−12%) decrease in vegetation area, while an expansion of approximately 283.04 km2 (6% change) will occur in built-up areas from 1990 to 2025. This decrease in vegetation cover and expansion of settlements would likely cause a rise of approximately ∼10.74 °C and ∼12.66 °C in future temperature, which would cause a rise in temperature (2025). The analyses could open an avenue regarding how to manage urban land cover patterns to enhance the resilience of cities to climate warming. This study provides scientific insights for environmental development and sustainability through efficient and effective urban planning and management in Beijing and will also help strengthen other research related to the UHI phenomenon in other parts of the world.

【 授权许可】

CC BY