Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model

PeerJ

article

Vidette L. McGregor¹  Elizabeth A. Fulton²  Matthew R. Dunn¹ 

[1]Fisheries, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd

[2]Oceans & Atmosphere

关键词: Chatham Rise;    Initial conditions;    Chaos;    Stability;    Atlantis;    Ecosystem model;    Deep sea;    Model validation;    End-to-end;    Sensitivity analysis;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.9254

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncertainty on the model’s dynamics by comparing the model outputs resulting from many initial condition perturbations. At the species group level, we found some species groups were more sensitive than others, with lower trophic level species groups generally more sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions. We recommend testing for robust system dynamics by assessing the consistency of ecosystem indicators in response to fishing pressure under perturbed initial conditions. In any set of scenarios explored using complex end-to-end ecosystem models, we recommend that associated uncertainty analysis be included with perturbations of the initial conditions.

【 授权许可】

CC BY