Projection of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases for 2025: a model based study from Hunan Province, China, 1990–2016

PeerJ

article

Qiaohua Xu¹  Maigeng Zhou²  Donghui Jin¹  Xinying Zeng²  Jinlei Qi²  Li Yin¹  Yuan Liu¹  Lei Yin¹  Yuelong Huang¹ 

[1] Department of NCDs Control and Prevention, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention;National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

关键词: Projection;    Noncommunicable diseases;    Premature mortality;    Joinpoint regression model;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.10298

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIn 2011, the United Nations set a target to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% by 2025. While studies have reported the target in some countries, no studies have been done in China. This study aims to project the ability to reach the target in Hunan Province, China, and establish the priority for future interventions.MethodsWe conducted the study during 2019–2020. From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, we extracted death data for Hunan during 1990–2016 for four main NCDs, namely cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. We generated estimates for 2025 by fitting a linear regression to the premature mortality over the most recent trend identified by a joinpoint regression model. We also estimated excess premature mortality attributable to unfavorable changes over time.ResultsThe rate of premature mortality from all NCDs in Hunan will be 19.5% (95% CI [19.0%–20.1%]) by 2025, with the main contributions being from CVD (8.2%, 95% CI [7.9%–8.5%]) and cancer (7.9%, 95% CI [7.8%–8.1%]). Overall, it will be impossible to achieve the target, with a relative reduction of 16.4%. Women may be able to meet the target except with respect to cancer, and men will not except with respect to chronic respiratory diseases. Most of the unfavorable changes have occurred since 2008–2009.DiscussionMore urgent efforts, especially for men, should be exerted in Hunan by integrating population-wide interventions into a stronger health-care system. In the post lock-down COVID-19 era in China, reducing the NCD risk factors can also lower the risk of death from COVID-19.

【 授权许可】

CC BY