Effects of temperature frequency trends on projected japonica rice ( Oryza sativa L.) yield and dry matter distribution with elevated carbon dioxide

PeerJ

article

Zeyu Zhou¹  Jiming Jin¹  Libing Song¹  Ling Yan¹ 

[1] College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi Province;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi Province

关键词: CERES-Rice model;    Temperature frequency;    Photosynthetic production;    CO2;    Fertilized spikelet number;    Rice yield;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.11027

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

In this study, we investigated the effects of temperature frequency trends on the projected yield and dry matter distribution of japonica rice (Oryza sativa L.) with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) under future climate change scenarios in northwestern China. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was forced with the outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) to project the rice growth and yield. Future temperature trends had the most significant impact on rice growth, and the frequency of higher than optimal temperatures (∼24–28 o35 oC) also increased, exerting a strong impact on rice fertilization and producing a significantly reduced yield. Although the increased temperature suppressed photosynthetic production, the elevated CO2 stimulated this production; therefore, the net result was determined by the dominant process. The aboveground biomass at harvest trended downward when temperature became the major factor in photosynthetic production and trended upward when CO2-fertilization dominated the process. The trends for the leaf and stem dry matter at harvest were affected not only by changes in photosynthesis but also by the dry matter distribution to the panicles. The trends for the rice panicle dry matter at harvest were closely related to the effects of temperature and CO2 on photosynthetic production, and extreme temperatures also remarkably affected these trends by reducing the number of fertilized spikelets. The trends of rice yield were very similar to those of panicle dry matter because the panicle dry matter is mostly composed of grain weight (yield). This study provides a better understanding of the japonica rice processes, particularly under extreme climate scenarios, which will likely become more frequent in the future.

【 授权许可】

CC BY