A new comprehensive approach for regional drought monitoring

PeerJ

article

Rizwan Niaz¹  Mohammed M. A. Almazah²  Ijaz Hussain¹  Muhammad Faisal⁴  A. Y. Al-Rezami⁵  Mohammed A. Naser² 

[1] Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University;Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences and Arts ,(Muhyil), King Khalid University;Department of Mathematics and Computer, College of Sciences, Ibb University;Faculty of Health Studies, University of Bradford;Department of Statistics and Information, Sana’a University;Mathematics Department, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University

关键词: Standardized precipitation index;    Monte Carlo feature selection;    Steady-state probabilities;    Continuous drought probability monitoring system;    Bivariate copulas;    Brier skill score;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.13377

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a vital component of meteorological drought. Several researchers have been using SPI in their studies to develop new methodologies for drought assessment, monitoring, and forecasting. However, it is challenging for SPI to provide quick and comprehensive information about precipitation deficits and drought probability in a homogenous environment. This study proposes a Regional Intensive Continuous Drought Probability Monitoring System (RICDPMS) for obtaining quick and comprehensive information regarding the drought probability and the temporal evolution of the droughts at the regional level. The RICDPMS is based on Monte Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS), steady-state probabilities, and copulas functions. The MCFS is used for selecting more important stations for the analysis. The main purpose of employing MCFS in certain stations is to minimize the time and resources. The use of MCSF makes RICDPMS efficient for drought monitoring in the selected region. Further, the steady-state probabilities are used to calculate regional precipitation thresholds for selected drought intensities, and bivariate copulas are used for modeling complicated dependence structures as persisting between precipitation at varying time intervals. The RICDPMS is validated on the data collected from six meteorological locations (stations) of the northern area of Pakistan. It is observed that the RICDPMS can monitor the regional drought and provide a better quantitative way to analyze deficits with varying drought intensities in the region. Further, the RICDPMS may be used for drought monitoring and mitigation policies.

【 授权许可】

CC BY