Dramatic impact of future climate change on the genetic diversity and distribution of ecologically relevant Western Mediterranean Carex (Cyperaceae)

PeerJ

article

Carmen Benítez-Benítez¹  María Sanz-Arnal²  Malvina Urbani³  Pedro Jiménez-Mejías²  Santiago Martín-Bravo¹ 

[1] Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemical Engineering/Botany Area, Universidad Pablo de Olavide;Department of Biology, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Campus Cantoblanco;Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy, University of Sassari

关键词: Conservation genetics;    Ecological niche;    Global climate change;    Habitat loss;    Mediterranean basin;    Restricted endemic;    Species distribution modeling;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.13464

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Anticipating the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing climate change is essential to propose effective management and conservation measures. The Western Mediterranean Basin constitutes one of the hotspots of biodiversity where the effects of climate change are expected to be more dramatic. Plant species with ecological relevance constitute ideal models to evaluate and predict the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Here we investigate these impacts through the spatio-temporal comparison of genetic diversity/structure (AFLPs), potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change, and ecological space in two Western Mediterranean sister species of genus Carex. Both species are ecologically key in their riparian habitats, but display contrasting distribution patterns, with one widespread in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa (C. reuteriana), while the other (C. panormitana) is a restricted, probably endangered, Central Mediterranean endemic. At present, we found a strong genetic structure driven by geography in both species, and lower values of genetic diversity and a narrower ecological space in C. panormitana than in C. reuteriana, while the allelic rarity was higher in the former than in C. reuteriana subspecies. Future projections predict an overall dramatic reduction of suitable areas for both species under all climate change scenarios, which could be almost total for C. panormitana. In addition, gene diversity was inferred to decrease in all taxa, with genetic structure reinforcing in C. reuteriana by the loss of admixture among populations. Our findings stress the need for a reassessment of C. panormitana conservation status under IUCN Red List criteria and the implementation of conservation measures.

【 授权许可】

CC BY