Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil

PeerJ

article

Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves¹  Pablo Vieira Cerqueira¹  Daniel Paiva Silva²  Letícia Braga Gomes¹  Camila Ferreira Leão¹  André Felipe Alves de Andrade³  Marcos Pérsio Dantas Santos¹ 

[1] Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará;Departamento de Biologia, Instituto Federal Goiano;Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás

关键词: Climatic stability;    Conservation policy;    Dry forest;    Extinctions;    Gap analysis;    Protected areas;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.14882

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundGlobal shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme.MethodsWe aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species.ResultsWe observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

【 授权许可】

CC BY