Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index

PeerJ

article

Dino G. Salinas¹  M. Leonor Bustamante²  Mauricio O. Gallardo¹ 

[1] Centro de Investigación Biomédica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Diego Portales;Human Genetics Program, Biomedical Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile;Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health, North Division, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile

关键词: Reproduction number;    COVID-19;    Differential equations;    Social inequality;    Quarantine;    Lockdown;    SARS-CoV-2;    Social distancing;    Social priority index;    Confirmed infected cases;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.14892

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAn epidemiological model (susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC)) was previously developed and applied to incorporate quarantine measures and calculate COVID-19 contagion dynamics and pandemic control in some Chinese regions. Here, we generalized this model to incorporate the disease recovery rate and applied our model to records of the total number of confirmed cases of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in some Chilean communes.MethodsIn each commune, two consecutive stages were considered: a stage without quarantine and an immediately subsequent quarantine stage imposed by the Ministry of Health. To adjust the model, typical epidemiological parameters were determined, such as the confirmation rate and the quarantine rate. The latter allowed us to calculate the reproduction number.ResultsThe mathematical model adequately reproduced the data, indicating a higher quarantine rate when quarantine was imposed by the health authority, with a corresponding decrease in the reproduction number of the virus down to values that prevent or decrease its exponential spread. In general, during this second stage, the communes with the lowest social priority indices had the highest quarantine rates, and therefore, the lowest effective viral reproduction numbers. This study provides useful evidence to address the health inequity of pandemics. The mathematical model applied here can be used in other regions or easily modified for other cases of infectious disease control by quarantine.

【 授权许可】

CC BY