Estimativa de tendências de preços de Agave Mezcalero no México usando modelos de regressão linear múltipla

Ciencia Rural

article

Angel Saul Cruz-Ramírez¹  Gabino Alberto Martínez-Gutiérrez¹  Alberto Gabino Martínez-Hernández²  Isidro Morales¹  Cirenio Escamirosa-Tinoco¹ 

[1] Unidad Oaxaca;Université Sorbonne Paris Nord

关键词: Agave Mezcalero;    time series analysis;    price forecast;   

DOI  :  10.1590/0103-8478cr20210685

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Universidade Federal de Santa Maria * Centro de Ciencias Rurais

【 摘 要 】

This study developed a multiple linear regression model to estimate the Average rural prices (ARP) in Mexico with information taken from the period 1999-2018. The variables used to generate this model were the supply and demand as represented by planted area, yield, exports and the ARP of Agave Tequilero and Mezcalero. The analysis was carried out through the multiple linear regression model (MLRM) with the least squares method and using the statistical package R. The following variables were identified as having a significant influence on the determination of the ARP: the yield of Agave Mezcalero (YAM), the ARP of Agave Tequilero and the new planted area of Agave Tequilero (NPAATt-6) with an adjustment of 6 periods. Overall, three models were generated: model 2 was considered the most appropriate because it allows carrying out future forecasts with the new planted area with Agave Tequilero with 2 independent variables. YAM and NPAATt-6 were useful in predicting 65.5% of the annual variations in the ARP and helped recognize the negative trend of the Agave price from 2020 to 2024. Therefore, the use of the MLRM to estimate the Agave ARP can be a useful tool in predicting the performance of this crop.

【 授权许可】

Unknown